Minnesota needs immigrants to propel population growth. How will federal policy affect that?

Minnesota s population has grown in three techniques naturally via more births than deaths people moving here from other states and international migration Demographers point out however that in as minimal as four years international migration will become the primary driver of the state s population increase And continued population development will help address labor force shortages increase the number of consumers and entrepreneurs and broaden the state s tax base But these projections which demographers have been watching for years are taking place against a decidedly anti-immigration national backdrop The Trump administration has blocked asylum access at the territory line stopped issuing international attendee visas tried to rescind temporary protected legal status for certain groups of immigrants and banned passage to the U S for citizens from a dozen countries Despite a large number of of these issues being mired in legal challenges taken together it sends a less-than-welcoming message to those who want to live work and examination in the U S The aging of the Baby Boomers has an impact on dampening development and at the same time we have lower birth rates over time Minnesota s state demographer Susan Brower explained MinnPost Susan Brower We know that going forward international immigration is going to continue to be an significant source of population increase and genuinely become a more central component of rise in the future she reported The Trump administration s immigration policies are so new that it s laborious to anticipate how exactly they will show up in the state s population facts But Brower walked me through the nature of Minnesota s population development in the past and what she and other demographers are projecting in the future Those insights can help us understand what fewer immigrants coming to Minnesota might mean for the state Natural expansion traditionally the main engine of Minnesota s population increase is slowing Since the s up until about Minnesota had been growing very rapidly and much of that was due to our own internal progress Brower announced But that period of high natural progress appears close to peaking with the state looking down the other side of a demographic mountain function use strict window addEventListener message function a if void a figures datawrapper-height var e document querySelectorAll iframe for var t in a details datawrapper-height for var r i r e i i if r contentWindow a source var d a information datawrapper-height t px r style height d We re projecting that Minnesota will not grow as rapidly as it has in the past because the population is aging Older populations have fewer babies and they have higher mortality rates and so it s just much much harder for an older population to grow compared to a younger population she commented At selected point Minnesota will no longer be able to maintain its current population the greater part not long ago estimated at million in July of through natural enhancement alone function use strict window addEventListener message function a if void a evidence datawrapper-height var e document querySelectorAll iframe for var t in a evidence datawrapper-height for var r i r e i i if r contentWindow a source var d a records datawrapper-height t px r style height d Historically Minnesota saw more other Americans move to the state than leave it That s also changed In the s we had a net inflow from other states Brower announced What we ve seen since the s up until now is consistent small but regular net outflows of people mostly young people to other states she explained There are multiple theories as to why young Minnesotans leave the state but the general consensus is that this domestic out-migration has been more than offset by the international in-migration the state has seen That leaves immigration as a source of population rise How has that fared Since immigration has propelled Minnesota s population development and it is poised to do so into the foreseeable future According to the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce from to immigration made up of the state s net population expansion Needing immigration to prop up populations in the face of slowing birth rates and aging residents is a nationwide phenomenon Brower mentioned but Midwestern states are hit sooner because they have slightly older populations and lower levels of immigration Compared to several other Midwestern states Minnesota does OK in part because we have or have had a healthy flow of immigrants from other countries that not all Midwestern states have experienced Brower declared This has been good for the state s employers making the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce an advocacy group that promotes the interests of the business group one of the biggest boosters of immigration to the state Will that flow of immigrants continue for Minnesota With immigration such a lynchpin of Minnesota s upsurge how will the state fare in this age of federal policies aimed at curbing immigration Fifteen years ago when she started this job I would have expected federal policies to eventually align with the demographic reality Brower mentioned I would have expected them to adjust to the slower population upsurge We haven t seen that happen she revealed Instead we re in a world of labor force shortages caused by dampened overall population improvement Brower revealed We re expecting to see that dampened expansion continue and that has implications for community budgets for planning and for economic increase potentially in the future function use strict window addEventListener message function a if void a material datawrapper-height var e document querySelectorAll iframe for var t in a evidence datawrapper-height for var r i r e i i if r contentWindow a source var d a information datawrapper-height t px r style height d What about native-born Minnesotans of different races How do they factor in Not all native-born Minnesotans are white just as not all immigrants are people of color Similar to how immigrants are driving population improvement non-white racial groups are also driving rise among the Minnesota-born population This can be attributed in large part to the large proportion of young people in racial minorities compared to white Minnesotans Up to of young people under the age of five are people of color And when you get to the very oldest age groups it s in the single digits to depending on which age group you re looking at Brower mentioned So part of what you re going to see in terms of natural change is just a loss of the white population as there are more parents of color and fewer or the same number of white residents in their childbearing years she noted Wait why do we need to grow Minnesota s population Immigration is economically advantageous for businesses because several immigrants bring specialized skills specific bring a willingness to do tough jobs and when the population grows the area of consumers grows as does the pool of workers Related from District Voices What kind of immigration approach do we want for Minnesota s financial system Much of our population sector and its decision-making processes similarly take future population upsurge as a given We build society budgets on the assumption of improvement and policies based on the fact that we will continue growing both at the local and the state levels Those assumptions would need to change if we re not going to have population development at the same levels in the future Brower disclosed Other countries and states are struggling with declining or flat populations and are having difficulty adjusting their systems to accommodate a shrinking number of residents she noted It is about how things are funded and also how our business sector depends on ever-expanding markets and labor force improvement so far Policies failing to align with necessities While there are issues that need to play out over time in the messy arena of politics demographers like Brower see flashing warning lights in the labor territory particularly in industries where worker shortages can mean life or death She highlighted the pivotal role immigrants play in Minnesota s soundness care industry filling critical gaps in hospitals long-term care homes and in-home care services At least in specific areas I would have expected federal approach to be more aligned with workforce necessities than it is by now But there has been such heightened concern around immigration without understanding the demographic need for immigration Brower declared Policies sometimes take a very long time to align or maybe don t align at all for a reason that isn t necessarily logical demographically Will Trump s immigration policies change discipline to meet labor demands Until in recent weeks the president seemed to have populace endorsement on this issue Polls proved the preponderance negative views of immigration were in the final months of former President Biden s term But that appears to have changed since Trump took office promising the largest mass deportation scheme in history After climbing to in the percentage of Americans who say immigration should be reduced has dropped by nearly half to Gallup reported alongside its poll disclosed July In fact the the bulk fresh polling shows of Americans think immigration is a good thing for the country an increase from a year ago and a high point in the nearly -year trend While there s no promise that this will translate into a different sort of immigration strategy it does offer a glimmer of hope for those who investigation population advance and decline and who see immigration as a crucial part of Minnesota s demographic and economic future The post Minnesota necessities immigrants to propel population upsurge How will federal program affect that appeared first on MinnPost